Industry predictions for 2024 – Show House

With a turbulent and challenging all but behind us and 2024 just around the corner, Showhouse spoke to a range of people across the housebuilding industry to find out their predictions for the new year.
Kevin Sims, director of sales & marketing at SO Resi:
“The market this year has been nothing short of tough and it’s not set to suddenly turn at the stroke of midnight on January 1st, so we need to be realistic on what can be achieved.
“Housing Associations and housebuilders will continue to have to be reactive and adapt to buyers’ needs. At SO Resi, we have an incredibly strong partnerships arm, whose expertise enables us to deliver even more shared ownership homes in association with a range of organisations, including local authorities, registered providers, for-profit registered providers, and housebuilders, and have a number of schemes in the pipeline for 2024 and beyond.”
“For many young people, shared ownership will continue to be the only realistic option and we need to ensure it is protected with adequate long-term funding from the government. Without this, we risk losing a generation of would-be homeowners.”
 
Simon Vernon-Harcourt, design & planning director at City & Country:
“Sustainability will continue to move up the agenda in the property sector. The industry takes it increasingly seriously, but change is also being driven by buyers as they seek more energy-efficient homes.”
“That said, this government or the next one needs to focus on improving our existing housing stock. The UK has among the oldest domestic housing in Europe, but these homes are not energy efficient. There is always going to be a trade-off between new build and existing stock but given the amount of energy and work that went into the initial building, it is only right we preserve that.”
“With the property sector contributing around 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions, we need strong incentives to encourage better use of existing buildings. Whoever comes into power after the General Election is staring at an open goal in terms of a policy that would greatly help our sustainability commitments.”
“Not only do we need to continue to improve our sustainability credentials, but we must also ensure that social impact remains a priority for the property industry. Everywhere we build and retrofit must also create a sense of place that is welcoming, and ultimately people want to live in for generations to come.”
 
Lesley Treacy, head of ESG at Dandara:
“As we move into 2024, ESG will undoubtedly be at the heart of decision-making and we expect to see a significant shift and focus on comprehensive sustainability reporting. Carbon will continue to remain a priority in the housing sector and, as an industry, we welcome the UK Net Zero Building Standard to provide tangible metrics for net zero carbon performance to be evaluated.”
“Progress in our building design and the use of modern materials will play a crucial role in decarbonising our industry as we move towards the UK’s net zero targets.”
“Several policy and legislative changes expected next year will help to further regulate the industry and provide a formalised framework. This includes Biodiversity Net Gain, Future Homes Standard, and the UK Sustainability Disclosure Standards, which will set out corporate disclosures on the sustainability-related risks and opportunities of businesses, to help companies report on their sustainability performance and adopt new practices.”
“We also cannot forget about the vital role the ‘S’ plays in ESG and the importance of social value creation at a local level to support our communities and create positive change that has real meaningful impact far beyond reporting and metrics.”
 
Mark Edgerley – associate director, Boyer (part of Leaders Romans Group): 
Due to delays in Government reforms and political uncertainty in 2023, we saw a large number of local planning authorities across all parts of the country delaying or pausing work on their Local Plan which led to frustrations as opportunities are then halted and investment in areas potentially lost due to other external factors.”
“Authorities cannot delay forever and at some point, the pauses will stop. This should result in 2024 becoming a year in which significant progress is made on Local Plans. After a period of delays, the future should see consultations, engagement and proactive collaboration between authorities, communities, landowners and developers working together to deliver the Local Plans to guide future growth and investments in an area.”
 
Marc Woolfe, director of sales & marketing at Barratt David Wilson Homes North Thames:
“As a housebuilder committed to sustainability and looking after nature, we made a commitment to deliver a 10% uplift in biodiversity net gain across all our new sites, a full year ahead of the legislation. We also have key relationships with partners such as RSPB so that we always try to give nature a home on our developments.”
“With more new sustainability and biodiversity legislation coming next year it is important for the housebuilding industry to preserve and enhance the natural world, to build low-carbon and energy-efficient homes, and to create communities where people and nature can thrive.”
 
Tim Foreman, managing director of land and new homes for Leaders Romans Group:    
“2023 was a year which saw the ‘need to moves’ active in the housing market while the ‘want to moves’ sat tight. Consequently, sales – and specifically off-plan sales – took a dip, the length of time taken to transact was elongated, and supply was reduced further.”
“But I believe that 2024 will mark an end to what some are suggesting is a downward spiral. For one thing, while we don’t have enough houses for the population, demand will be maintained in the medium to long term. Furthermore, inflation is down, interest rates have stabilised and the cost of living crisis is out of the headlines (whether it is over is another matter, but it seems that we are finally free of the self-perpetuating doom which has been a feature of much of 2023). All point to a more positive 2024.”
“Despite much political rhetoric about the need to build more homes, politics remains the greatest challenge, specifically the short-termist, reactionary prioritisation of the NIMBY vote over helping the homeless. We need political determination to bring about the necessary release of Green Belt land and allow the hundreds of local plans that are stuck in the system to progress. We need a solution to the nutrient neutrality which is stalling approximately 150,000 homes (and 45,000 social/affordable homes).”
“Will we get the solutions needed next year? As we approach a general election, the Conservatives will be unlikely to do anything too radical to upset their core voters. On the other hand, they have appeared committed to pushing through key legislation – specifically the Renters Reform Bill and Levelling Up and Regeneration Act – and have embarked on the Leasehold and Freehold Bill.”
“Even in the absence of further changes, these three substantial pieces of legislation alone will ensure an eventful year for the property industry.”
 
Colin Brown, partner and head of planning & development for Carter Jonas:
“The delivery of new housing has stalled. The government’s target to build 300,000 homes per annum in England was downgraded to ‘advisory’ status in 2022 and fewer than 200,000 net additional homes per annum were actually delivered over the last decade, meaning that year on year the deficit in delivery is growing.”
“It is likely that both main political parties will maintain a focus on achieving the 300,000 per annum figure in their manifestos. Indeed, Labour have confirmed they will reinstate this figure as a mandatory target, in addition to updating planning laws to give local authorities a greater say in delivery.”
“The big debate looks likely to be around land value capture (a mechanism by which a greater proportion of the uplift in land value arising from planning consent can be captured for public benefit such as infrastructure and affordable housing).”
“The green belt debate will also be key for 2024. Although the previous target of building 60% of all new homes on brownfield land has been removed, the ambition lives on in the NPPF (2023), and it has undoubtedly slowed the rate of housing delivery.”
“Brownfield housing development is not always viable and policy needs to reflect this reality. It is positive that Labour has recognised the potential of the low-quality, mostly brownfield, ‘grey belt’ that is unnecessarily protected through green belt allocation. In any case, there is nowhere near sufficient brownfield land to meet the 300,000 figure, certainly across multiple years, and meaningful greenfield development will be integral to increasing the rate of delivery.”
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