Dr. Lawrence Cathles, an earth and atmospheric sciences professor at Cornell University who co-authored the study, said these findings point to a “disconnect” between the intentions behind decarbonization and the reality of the materials required.
Supply-demand disconnect
In short, the study — led by Dr. Cathles and Dr. Adam Simon, a professor of earth & environmental sciences at the University of Michigan — found that the rate at which the world is producing copper cannot keep pace with the increasing global demand for electric vehicles.
To quantify this disconnect, it gave projections of both supply and demand in a fashion that is unique to prior studies (see below).
(A) Historic and projected mined copper production. (B) Copper mine production requirement scenarios. Credit: IEF
On the supply side, annual mine output is expected to increase by 82% (from 20.4Mt to 37.1Mt) by 2050, and so will the total supply, after accounting additions from copper recycling. However, all production estimates are set to peak around the year 2086 (mine output of 48.7Mt), as shown in Figure A.
On the demand side, the study investigated several decarbonization scenarios and broke down the additional copper production that will be required under each case up until year 2050 (Figure B) .
Evidently, the net-zero scenario displays the largest gap — requiring at least 194 mines or 6 new mines every year. On the other hand, the baseline scenario (business as usual) presents a more realistic challenge of 35 mines — about one per year (see chart below).
Extra copper (relative to 2018) mined between 2018 and 2050 and number of mines that must be put into operation each year over this period to meet electrification demands. Credit: IEF
However, the authors also noted that they have been optimistic in projecting the new mine creation needs. For instance, if copper recycling remains constant at its 2018 level rather than increasing as assumed, then the number of new mines required for baseline demand would be 43.
EV manufacturing goal
Even before reaching the 2050 net-zero target, the goal of 100% EV manufacture by 2035 will still require an unprecedented departure from the copper mining baseline, the report noted.
Historically, it is estimated that excursions from mine production have been around 1 million tonnes per year (in magnitude over about 15 years), and a departure from the baseline related to EV manufacture will be five times greater and twice as long as we have experienced before (5Mt for over 30 years).
Corrected for recycling, this mining excursion is equivalent to a demand gap of 8.1 million tonnes in 2035 and 9.6 million tonnes in 2040, it added.
It is worth noting that the methods used in this study are identical to the one used by M. King Hubbert, who was famous for successfully predicting 30 years of US oil production right up to when technologies such as directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing made it possible to produce natural gas and crude oil from shale and expanded the hydrocarbon resource.
Mining takes time
With increased mining activity, there also comes the question of whether the Earth holds enough resources to support this. The short answer given by the IEF report is yes.
Under the baseline scenario, about 1.69 billion tonnes of copper will be mined by 2050, which represents 26% of the total copper resource of approximately 6.66 billion tonnes estimated by the authors. Their total resource estimate is also close to the 5.6 billion tonne figure given by the USGS.
If mining ever shifts to greater depths in Earth’s crust, the copper resource would grow further to 89 billion tonnes, and 241 billion tonnes may be recoverable from the seafloor.
Hence, there is plenty of copper available. The real concern, then, is whether these resources can be mined fast enough to support baseline global development, and then go beyond towards vehicle electrification.
The study puts that into doubt by pointing out that the new copper mines that came online between 2019 and 2022 took an average of 23 years from the time of a resource discovery for mines to be permitted, built, and put into operation.
“Within this long discovery-to-operation pipeline, we should see at least ten years of prospects (e.g. 17 prospects) with a combined production potential of 8 million tonnes per year in the pipeline to have any confidence we can meet the 1.7 major deposits per year discovery rate required for EV manufacture,” the authors wrote.
Hybrid: An alternative
In light of the findings, the authors of the report suggested hybrid vehicles as a better alternative for balancing the copper demands of electrification and the pressure placed on the mining industry.
“There is remarkably little difference between the amount of copper needed to manufacture hybrid electric rather than ICE vehicles,” they said, highlighting that hybrid electric vehicles require 29 kg of copper compared to 24 kg for an ICE vehicle.
“It would therefore be judicious to aim for a transition to the 100% manufacture of hybrid electric vehicles by 2035, rather than transitioning to the 100% manufacture of battery electric vehicles, which require 60 kg. The copper required for this transition is only slightly above baseline and does not require major grid improvements.”
“This is not a perfect solution, but it is a much more resource realistic one,” they emphasized.
Read the full report here.
This article was published by: Jackson Chen
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